Introduction

On September 16th, 2025, Chinese and Philippine vessels were involved in a collision near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Just a few days prior to the incident, Beijing had announced its intention to set up a national nature reserve using part of the reef. The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila responded by initiating a diplomatic protest. Additionally, Manila expressed its frustration, saying that the protest came in retaliation for the“illegitimate and unlawful action by China as it clearly infringes upon the rights and interests of the Philippines in accordance with international law.”

According to the Philippine Coast Guard, two Chinese coast guard ships used powerful water cannons, causing significant damage to the ship and injuring a crew member. As Aljazeera reports, a Chinese Coast Guard spokesperson suggested that the arrival of 10 Philippine boats was conducted  “illegally”. 

Context and Background

The Scarborough Shoal lies under the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ); however, it is claimed by China as part of the Huangyan Island. The reef has been contested for more than a decade. In 2012, both countries took part in a tense standoff, and in 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled that China’s claims in the South China Sea (including over the Scarborough Shoal) were not backed by, and in alignment with, international law, saying “China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights with respect to its exclusive economic zone and continental shelf”. Beijing has - up to this day - rejected the ruling, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently saying the ruling was a “farce” and “manipulated by external powers,” as reported in the South China Morning Post.

The Shoal is part of a wider sovereignty conflict over the Spratly Islands, which are claimed by multiple countries, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. China’s recent national nature reserve plan would cover more than 3,500 hectares, largely targeting coral reef preservation. To put this into context, that would be nearly 60 per cent of Manhattan Island. Critics argue that the nature reserve plan is merely a tool to reinforce claims over the territory. 

Regional and International Response 

The Philippines has strongly expressed its stance on the collision, filing a diplomatic protest and emphasizing its stance that the Scarborough Shoal is part of the nation’s EEZ. 

In addition to the diplomatic protest, Philippine allies, including the U.K, Australia, and Canada, have also issued statements, expressing support for the Philippines. Tangentially, the U.S. has called out China’s actions, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying that China’s actions were “yet another coercive move to advance sweeping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbors”.

The majority of the Association of South East Asian Nations  (ASEAN) was hesitant to speak out against Beijing, as many ASEAN member states are heavily economically reliant on China. However, as the conflict continues to escalate, with such incidents taking place more frequently, both ASEAN and governments from across the world will have to take firmer positions as a result of greater pressure. 

Wider Implications and The Road Ahead

The collision at the Scarborough Shoal increases the risk of greater militarization in one of the South China Sea's most volatile territories. With greater political turmoil and continued clashes over sovereignty in recent years, analysts have looked at the possible consequences if the Philippines were to activate its Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, which outlines both countries’ “unity and [...] common determination to defend themselves against [an] external armed attack”. 

For China, it’s imperative that it retains control in order to ensure control over key maritime points and secure access to fishing stocks and shipping routes, worth trillions of dollars on an annual basis. The Philippines, and other nations claiming ownership across regions in the South China Sea, however, will need to prepare and be ready for the possibility of a more aggressive and fearless Chinese coast guard and navy, looking to assert its ownership over the region for the foreseeable future. However, the livelihoods of Filipino fishermen who rely on access to the shoal will be indefinitely hurt by the contest for dominance. If China’s nature reserve framing works, it could be propelled to use similar tactics across other contested territories within the region, not just with the Philippines but also Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.